Tariffs pushing me to a New Car

Yup, I'm car shopping again.  I swear though, on a LIMITED BASIS ONLY!

Okay, you'll have to forgive me as I've been talking about and writing about car shopping for awhile, with different people, and in different areas.  Let me catch up where my 'new' car shopping started, how it progressed, and how it got to here.  Then I'll move on to what the actual shopping is and the limitations I'm putting on myself.  

As you should know, my migraines are improving.  I have a basic plan to get back to work and even a basic plan of where I'll be working.  I've had one migraine day this month that I couldn't have worked through and only three days with an actual migraine so far.  If I go the rest of this month without another migraine day that I can't work through and go next month with only one migraine day that I can't work through, I'm calling myself cured well enough to return to work.  If I can return as a supervisor at the last prison I worked at, I'll do that.  If I can't get that (I give it a 50/50 chance) I am fairly sure I can get a floor nursing job at a prison here in town.  It's easier than the prison I worked at and it's biggest draw back is slow action and boredom.  

So, I've known since I bought Layla that she was a temporary vehicle.  An in between vehicle.  Assuming I could resume my old life (returning to work as a nurse or nurse manager) I'd get a newer car, spending up to what I did on my previous two cars.  Around $800 a month.  Considering that I'd have trade in value with Layla, that means I could afford an almost new Lincoln Nautilus, which was redesigned in 2024 and included several features that I adored.  At the worst, I could get a Lincoln Nautilus with a newer interior than Tiffany but the same exterior (2022 or 2023) and even up it from a loaded Reserve trim to the Black Label trim and spend way less than $800 a month. 

As I got better and better, my mind kept wanting to wander to what car I'd buy.  I mean down to the specifics.  That's a symptom similar to my worrying, where I was worrying about my finances and even my life before.  Sure, it's a 'good' worry, but it's still an obsessive thought process that I try not to circle.  ESPECIALLY with cars as I love buying cars and dislike my current car.  That's a recipe for disaster as I don't have a job where I know I can afford $800 a month for the next six years.  

So, while the thought kept coming up, I'd give it some time but ultimately shut it down and only 'worry' about it every few days for about a half hour.  Those are times that I'd let myself look at cars or car reviews and try to see what exactly I'd want.  I'd even occasionally do some actual car shopping just to see what was available on lots now.  

The most likely thing is that I'd be getting a 2024 Lincoln Nautilus.  With the features I wanted, I couldn't quite afford a brand new one, but with like 10,000 miles I could afford just what I wanted with a used one.  

To show what I was looking for, lets look at brand new Lincoln Nautiluses.  There were only very minor differences in standard features, trims, prices, and colors between 2024 and 2025 so the 'Build Your Own' feature on the Lincoln.com website works fine.  

A Lincoln Nautilus starts at $51,890.  That's for the base Premier trim with no options.  There are basically three or five trims depending on how you look at it.  There's Premier I and Premier II, Reserve II, and Reserve III (there used to be a Reserve I, but they dumped that), and Black Label.  Then there are options, some of which are only available on certain trims.  And you know me... I want several expensive options.  Those specifically include Lincoln Blue Cruise (their hands free automated driving system), 24-way power seats with massage (mainly for the 24 way adjustability, but the massage would be nice too), their 48" a-pilar to a-pilar screen, their 310 hp hybrid engine, and their premium 28 speaker Revel Ultima audio system.  They don't have many colors that I like.  I kind of like the 'Whisper' Blue Metalic paint they have.  On the Reserve trim they also have a Allura Blue interior that looks really nice (The Black Label Trim has an interior called Redwood that is especially nice, but I can't afford a 2025 OR a 2024 Black Label, so we'll just forget about that!).  In fact, I won't even talk about what's on the Black Label for 2024 and 2025 since I can't afford it.  

The Blue Cruise comes standard on all of the trims.  Even the basic $51,890 Premier trim gets it so there's no reason to worry about that.  

The 24-way power seats with massage (Power Memory 24-Way Perfect Position Driver and Passenger Seat Adjust with Active Motion) is only available on the Reserve III.  

The 48" screen is standard like Blue Cruise.  

The Hybrid engine is available on all trims and is a $2000 option.  

The Premium Audio comes in stages. Premier 1 comes with the 'standard' audio system with 10 speakers.  Premier II and Reserve II trims come with the Revel upgraded audio system with 14 speakers.  And the Reserve III trim comes with the Revel Ultima 3D Audio System with 28 speakers.  A quick aside, Tiffany's Revel Ultima system had 19 speakers, so somewhere in between the current Revel and Revel Ultima.  

So basically it goes down like this.  The Lincoln Nautilus includes Blue Cruise and the 48" screen automatically.  The Hybrid engine costs $2000 to upgrade.  Then I can go to the Premier II to get a slight upgrade to the audio, the Reserve II to get the same audio upgrade plus the option of the blue interior, and the Reserve III to get the final upgrade to the audio system and the 24-Way power seats.  

So that's what's available in a new Nautilus. Obviously when buying a used one, I'm limited to what's on the lot.  The blue interior is tough as they don't make a lot of those.  For every 100 Nautiluses I find, only 1 will have a blue interior.  And out of 8 Nautiluses with blue interiors, only one will be with a blue exterior.  They can also go in their silver, grey, black, and white.  I could see me driving a white Nautilus, although it's not my first choice.  But not black, silver, or grey.  

Now, if I got the job here in town, where I won't be commuting all that much, it seems silly to spend $800 a month on a car payment.  At least outside of a spectacular deal.  So a more likely purchase would be a 2022 or 2023 Nautilus.  The exterior would look mostly like Tiffany but the interior got a refresh with a 13" screen replacing the 8" screen.  But Blue Cruise isn't available.  The nice thing is that those vehicles have depreciated enough that I can get a 2022 or 2023 Black Label Trim which makes sure I get all the features like I had on Tiffany and even get the 24 way seats.  Just not the Blue Cruise. 

A word about Blue Cruise.  It only works on major highways.  Ford continues to upgrade their maps, but it's not like it's going to get to city streets.  It's not even on most state highways.  Blue Cruise would be useless for me driving to and from a job here in town.  I checked the map that shows where it can be used and it would be useless for my commute to my old prison where I'd like to work as a supervisor again.  Those are all state highways.  It would be useable if I went back to the State Hospital, but that's pretty low on my list.  And of course it would be useful on trips across the country... like the one I'm taking in June.  

On a whim, last week I looked at the Lincoln Corsair.  The Corsair is the smaller Lincoln, basically the size of my Mom's Escape.  It's fine for cargo area, but it's seating area is closer to Fiona as it's also based on the Focus where the Edge/Nautilus is based on the Fusion.  But the Corsair has a plug in hybrid available.  And it got its refresh for the 2023 model year.  So, I looked at it.  And guess what... the Corsair got Blue Cruise in 2023.  It doesn't get the 24 way seats and it's highest audio system is a Revel with 14 speakers but... BLUE CRUISE!  

The color options on Corsairs are messed up.  I did find a beautiful Red color that comes with a Red interior that's not available on the Nautilus.  It honestly looks quite sweet.  And that refresh included the same 13" screen as the Nautilus got in 2022.  

It was another option if I wasn't driving all that much.  But as I write this out, it's biggest advantage is the Blue Cruise, but driving long distances wouldn't be comfortable in it's more cramped space.  So... why would I consider one?  I might leave it on my list and see if I could test drive a 'perfect' one, but I think the Nautilus, even the 2022 or 2023 without Blue Cruise would be better.  

The first change to my thinking came when President Trump announced Tariffs.  There were specific Tariffs on cars and car parts and then even higher Tariffs on goods from China.  The Lincoln Nautilus is built in China.  I wasn't worried about the new car prices, as again they were out of reach.  But if all car prices started to creep up then used car prices might start to creep up too.  

I hemmed and hawed on that for about a week and finally came to the conclusion that I couldn't guess what the car market would look like between that time and July/August. President Trump kept changing the Tariffs, pausing them, increasing them, decreasing them... just making it a mess.  

Then when it became clear that there WOULD be Tariffs on cars, Ford stepped up and offered their employee pricing to everybody.  It was mainly for cars already on lots and excluded a few models, but importantly to me, it included the Nautilus.  That took the Nautilus from unaffordable to affordable.  It got the Reserve III trim with the hybrid engine just over the $800 car month payment if I got $16,000 for Layla. 

That deal would go through June 2nd.  I still wasn't impressed enough to go through with it as that really would stretch my buying options to the max and I wasn't working yet.  Why buy now when that offer might get extended.  Why buy now when pricing might not be affected by the Tariffs.  

And then yesterday hit.  A news report came out saying that Ford was reporting a price increase on cars manufactured in May.  Those would be cars arriving to car lots in June.  To me, that not only says that the employee pricing will end, the MSRP will go up in June.  If Ford is going to raise their prices, then GM and Stellantis won't be far behind.  And since even cars manufactured in America use a lot of parts from other countries, that won't make a big difference when it comes to Tariff pricing.  Basically, all new cars would likely rise in price.  And if all new cars go up, then used prices will start to rise.  

So, I thought it through this afternoon.  I still have to finalize my thinking as this is in 'STUPID IDEA' territory.  But the employee pricing right now is worth about $7000 on current vehicles.  Let's say prices rise by a modest 5%.  Well, the MSRP on a Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid Reserve III is $70,305 at my nearest dealer.  With the employee pricing it's currently for sale at $62,623 (I'd imagine there is no haggling at this price!).  But a 5% increase in MSRP would take that price to $73,820 in June.  $77,335 if it goes up by 10% and $84,366 if it goes up by 20%.  That could be as much as a $21,743 swing in price or as 'low' as a $11,197.  

It's pretty hard to look at a ten to twenty thousand dollar difference in price and not jump at the opportunity to get it.  Especially when it's exactly what I want.  

The PERFECT Lincoln Nautilus would be a 2025, Blue exterior, Blue interior, Hybrid engine, Reserve III trim.  I'd accept the same thing with the white exterior as that just looked classy on Isabella, looks classy on B's Fusion, and looks good on a couple Nautiluses I've seen around.  

Thinking about it, I MIGHT go with a Reserve II, but only if everything else was the same, including the blue exterior.  I won't even sacrifice that little bit for the white, if I'm already sacrificing the seats and ultimate Ultima audio system.  

So, looking around there are no perfect Reserve IIIs.  There are 4 within 200 miles that are White.  And there is 1 Reserve II that's blue.  The White Reserve IIIs go for about $62,000 each while the Reserve II, goes for about $59,000.  I can't imagine there would be any haggling with the discounts they're already offering and now the thread of price increases.  It's first come first serve on these.  The big question is do I want to jump, and IS Layla worth $16,000. 

Thankfully, there's tools to help with trade in value.  Carvana and Kelly Blue Book will give cash offers.  Let's see what they say about Layla.

Whoa.  When I got an instant offer from Kelly Blue Book on my Mustang it fit into what I thought I was going to get.  If I remember right, it was $34,399 and KBB had previously given a general guess of $34,800.  I have just recently looked up Layla's KBB value and the middle 'average' value was $16,000 so that's what I was working with.  Well, it looks like her value dropped like a brick as KBBs new basic value is $12,000.  And her instant cash offer?  An insulting $11,054.  So, $1000 LESS than their guess.  

Thankfully they're not the only one in the game.  Carvana offered $13,400, Cars.com offered $13,450, and CarMax offered $14,000.  This is of course being honest with all of them and admitting that it's a smokers car (which often is a big deal).  

So, now that I have a value for Layla (and yes, I'll be working with $14,000) I can use a basic car loan calculator to get a good guess at monthly payments.  Let's call these the White one and the Blue one.  They're both 2025 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrids with blue interiors brand new on the lot.  The White one is a Reserve III and the Blue one is a Reserve II.  Financing has a term of 72 months, is at 5.99% as that's what my credit union will give me, includes 6% sales tax and $2000 in Title, Registration, and other fees (again, I'd normally try to negotiate these down, but again I don't think there is any negotiating on price).  They'll both of course also include $14,000 trade in.  I'm not including Gap insurance or an extended warranty, although I'll ultimately include Gap and consider a warranty.  The warranty will just have to come later though as I'll have a brand new warranty of 4 year 50,000 mile basic and 6 year 70,000 mile power train warranty.  

The White one is $62,623.  That's a $900.98 monthly payment.  

The Blue one is $59,552.  That's a $847.05 monthly payment.  

After paying off Layla, I can afford to put a $4000 down payment along with the trade in.  If I include that, they change to:

The White one is a $834.71 monthly payment.  

The Blue one is a $780.78 monthly payment.  

The White one's MSRP on it's window sticker is $70,305.  For comparison, Tiffany, my previously most expensive car when new was $65,430.  And since it was used, it's sticker was $48,788.  Nina's brand new window sticker was $49,340 and I paid just about $48,000.  So any way I slice it, if I do this, it would be the most expensive car I have ever got.  A $70,305 sticker and a $62,623 sale price.  

This has helped.  I did a pretty extensive search for Nautiluses and I believe these five are the only ones that match my criteria.  Hybrid, Reserve II and Blue, or Reserve III and Blue or White.  I'll double check otherwise, but that's about where I come down.  

I'm pretty close on the White one as it's just a 30 mile trip to the East.  The Blue one would be close, but it's a 2 hour trip away and that includes driving THROUGH Detroit traffic... so closer to 3 hours.  

I'm honestly right on the fence.  As I come down and get closer and closer to a conclusion I'm changing my mind second by second.  I'll do it!  I won't!  Will!  Won't!!

So, what I'm going to do is type up the basics of what I have here.  My reasoning, the cars I'm looking at, why the features are important to me, and why NOW is important.  Then tomorrow, I'll talk to my brother B.  I checked with him and he has the day off so I can just drive over and chat with him after lunch.  It's not like I'd be buying the car that day.  Hell, the white Nautilus is technically in transit so I couldn't even see it tomorrow.  BUT, if I want to, I can go over as it's a big Lincoln dealership and look at similar ones.  See what the white would look like, see what the blue interior would look like, see what the power seats would be like, test drive a hybrid... so on and so forth.  I could even set up the deal if I wanted.  

Actually, no.  That can't happen.  I'm gonna pay off Layla tomorrow and I'll have to get an updated title so it won't have the lien.  

Anyway, I'll talk with B and see what he says.