Sunday, November 13, 2016

After Ginger...


Since around June of this year, I've had one thought going through my head over and over and over again.  What's my new car going to be?

I know what you're probably thinking;  Yes at this point I've only had Ginger (my 2015 Ford Fusion Hybrid Titanium) for 21 months.  Not even 2 years.   But when I purchased Fiona (my 2012 Ford Fusion Titanium)  I wasn't sure I could afford a brand new car.  I bought her used.  When I purchased Ginger I could afford brand new, but because of the miles it would be a purchase made over 5 years.  And the miles did pile up quick.  In the 9 months that I drove an hour to and from work five days a week I put 20,000 miles on her.  In the 1 year since taking this new local job I've only put an additional 5,000 miles on.

Put those together... and I can now lease a car.  If my car's trade in value is at or lower than what I owe on it, I could drive off the lot in a 2 year newer version of my car and end up paying hundreds of dollars less for three years.  And at the end of those three years I'd be free to pick out a new one and have similar payments for another three years.

Now as a far younger man, I hated the idea of a lease.  I looked at it as never owning your car.  The bank or the car company owned it.  You couldn't modify it in any significant way.  You would do nothing but sweat for every single mile driven knowing that you were limited on how many miles you could have.  You'd have to do all the maintenance and be able to prove it was done.


But when I was that younger man, I owned far older cars.  Modifying them was primarily in the stereo, and maintenance was me changing the oil ever few months and maybe changing the oil filter too.  But with my two newer cars that came with factory warranties.... I take them into the shop for their maintenance.   And modifications?  Well... I buy cars that have what I want in them already and have no plans to modify a brand new car.  Now if I were planning on buying a sports car that I wanted to keep for years and year... a car that I wanted to open up and drop a new chip or program in, a car that I'd want to change the engine to and add an exotic exhaust too and put in racing seats.... then yeah, a lease would be a stupid idea.  But that's not what I"m after.  I'm after a car to comfortably get me to and from work and the occasional road trip.  No modifications, and no intention to 'own' it for more than 3 years.  Even with all the miles I planned putting on Ginger, I still planned on getting out from under her in three years.   Oh.. and the miles?  I can't remember any year that I've put over 12,000 miles on a car when I had a local job.  Even when I lived in Chicago and took regular trips to and from Michigan, I was still way under 12,000 miles.

So none of those concerns are really valid.  The only problem I see with a lease is that when I want to stop having new cars every three years I'll have to buy one outright again.  But even there... if I like the car I've just leased for 3 years I can just work out a deal with the dealership and buy that one.  You see, I've done my research on a lease and it's fairly simple.  For the terms of the lease, you are paying for the value lost on the vehicle.  Lets say you're car is worth $30,000 brand new and after three years with 36,000 miles on it, it's worth $10,000.  Your lease payment would be $20,000 divided by 36 months or $555.55 a month.   But all of those numbers are as negotiable as when you buy a car.  If they have the sticker at $30,000 you can negotiate them down to a starting value of $27,000.  You can trade in your vehicle for let's say another $4000, and then you can put down at $2000 down payment.  In that case your starting value is  $21,000.  Now the lease payment would only be $11,000 divided by 36 or $305.55 a month.

At the end of the lease there are several options on buying the car because more or less you'd be buying a car that's worth whatever it's worth, but financing the remaining $10,000.  If you're care held good value and is actually worth $15,000.... then you're paying $10,000 for a $15,000 car.  If the car depreciated more than you thought and is only worth $7,000, then you can simply decide not to go with that and just finance a different car for whatever you want.

With that in mind, finding the lease payment on a car isn't as easy as finding it's sticker price and going from there.  A Chevy or a Ford drops in value quickly while a Honda or VW don't drop nearly as much.

So leasing is the way I want to go.  I figure I'll be driving a new car every few years for the next 20 years.  So long as I'm working, it's worth it to me to keep up with a new car.  I don't want an older car, I don't want the maintenance, I don't want any of that crap.  Most people I know that buy their car outright drive it without a payment for a couple years, then go out and get another car.  Most people in that situation aren't buying brand new, they're getting a car that's one or two years old so that they payments are far more reasonable.  But they still have to finance that semi new car over 4, 5, or 6 years.  I think if you take those higher payments for 4 years and then the no payments for say 3 years it would be a small savings.  A bigger savings obviously for every month they drive that car with no payment.  But they also lose out on that 'new car' experience.  In the 7 years of experience I've just described, I've finished two 3 year leases and would be on my 3rd car.  That's three cars worth of new technology, new safety features, and no worries as I get out of the car either just before the warranty runs out or AS the warranty runs out.

I can't think of any reason at this point in my life to NOT lease a car.  It just makes more financial sense.  So the next thought of course is... what car would I like to lease?  I could lease a fun funky hatchback like Fiona was... the leases on those are between $350 and $400 a month. I could lease the same thing as what I have (a near luxury hybrid mid-sized sedan) for about $500 a month.  I could even get into a 4 cylinder Mustang for a bit more or a V6 Camaro for about the same monthly payment I have now.

In other words, I could get a smaller car and save a bundle.  I could stay where I am and save some.  Or I could get a 'better' car and pay about the same.

I started by making a list of cars I'd like.  I didn't give too much consideration on the lease price as that would be factored in later.  The list I started with was:

A Ford Focus Titainum (similar to Fiona)
Ford Fusion Hybrid Titanium (similar to Ginger)
Ford Fusion Hybrid Platinum (basically Ginger with ALL the options and a better interior)
Ford Mustang Ecoboost
Chevy Carmaro with a 6 cylinder.  (both muscle cars would be too expensive with the 8 cylinders considering the trim levels I'd want).
Cadillac ATS (lots of options to row through on this one, but it's doable at the high end of my price range)
Mini Cooper

As I continued on I've added more cars to the list.

Chevy Cruze Hatchback
Audi A3 Sedan
Ford Fusion Sport
Ford Fusion Titanium or Platinum without the Hybrid (more on that later)
VW Golf or GTI

Here's my thinking on these cars: (any mention of lease price is based on a 36 month lease with 12,000 miles per year, no down payment, and no trade in value (I may owe some on the trade in), as offered by the corporate website.  In other words it's the high water mark and I'd expect to pay between 5% and 10% less.

Focus
I loved Fiona.  I still miss her.  Yeah, she was small and a little kid like... but that was part of her appeal.  I fit in her comfortably enough so the size wasn't an issue unless I had passengers (a rare thing for me).  And with the hatchback I actually could carry more stuff.  For instance I easily carried the snow tires in her where it's a total pain in the ass to put four wheels inside Ginger.  The mpg is damned near perfect.  I was getting an annual average of 38 mpg on those long drives to and from work.  I figure it would drop down to the mid or low 30s on the shorter trips I do now.  Hybrid or now, cruising at 55 to 60 mph is a great saver on gas.

But... they don't make the Focus in that fun funky yellow anymore.  And to me, that was half the fun of Fiona.  Driving around in a white, black, grey, red, or blue Focus just wouldn't be nearly as smile inducing.   And at the end of the day... I've had a Focus.  Am I sure it's the best compact hatchback out there?  No.  No I'm not.  So I pulled the Focus from the list fairly quickly.

Fusion(s)
I have gone back and forth the most on the Fusions.  Lemme start with what I don't like about Ginger.  She's damned common.  I see red fusions driving around everywhere.  It's a rare day that I DON'T see one.  Hell, there are three every day in the parking lot at work!  THREE!  And it bugs me that they're driving what they consider to be the same car and only paid $25,000 for it where I have the rarer version but paid closer to $37,000.    Even if it was rarer... it's just not as exciting of a car.  Don't get me wrong, it's a smooth damned ride!  It's comfortable.  It has just about every amenity I could want.  But the red color is just... normal.  It's so common to see red cars now that I'd put it right up there with Black, White, and Grey.  There are several special colors available, but one is a very dull green that looks practically grey until it's seen at the right angle, another is a 'Burgendy Velvet" that's kind of like an off purple (gag!) and then there's the blue.  There's a blue Fusion that I drive by most days and it looks pretty damned good.  Still not as rare as a Yellow Focus, but that may just be because the color was discontinued for Foci.  The other thing I'm not as satisfied with is the miles per gallon.   Driving a few minutes a day when compared to a few hours a day is a big BIG difference.  Yeah, I still only fill up on average once a month but my miles per gallon has dropped down to the mid 30s.  The same as a compact car, and not that big of a difference when I'm only putting a few thousand miles on it per year.  I was saving cash on Ginger even considering the higher up front cost of the Hybrid... but I think I'll lose quite a bit of money if I did it now.

So while my initial consideration was staying the same, I moved on and started to look at other variations.  The first was just the non hybrid version of mine.  The difference in Titanium and Platinum is really this;  the Platinum has everything the Titanium can have as standard equipment, it has a plus new interior in light tans and browns (mine is black and light tan), and it has the honeycomb grill as opposed to the lines.  So really I just considered the Platinum.  Once I had almost every feature I have on mine and added the adaptive cruise (I WANT THAT!) the price was at or even higher than a platinum without the upgraded interior. The monthly lease on a Fusion Platinum all wheel drive was $434 a month.

The problem with the Platinum?  It isn't offered in the Blue.  The Blue is the one color I'm truly interested in for Fusions.  So I'd either have to step down to the Titanium or move on to the Sport.

The Fusion Sport is their big horsepower version.  It has 325 horsepower as compared to 245 on the better of the non hybrid engines (better because it gets better mpg as opposed to the engines with less horsepower.  Yeah yeah... it costs more too). The sport is available in Blue, has a unique grey interior, and a nice shiny red "Sport" badge.  BUT... as with anything that includes the word Sport, the mpg took a major hit.  The lesser engines get 21/32 while the sport gets 17/26.  Yikes.

So the Platinum isn't perfect and the Sport isn't perfect.

Mustang/Camaro
These would be the small engine variants of the muscle cars.  The Mustang is a 4 cylinder ecoboost engine that gets over 300 horses out of it, while the Camaro is 6 cylinders with bout 350 horses.  The horsepower would be plenty for me.  I don't need the near 500 horses that the 8 cylinders provide. BUT... I've actively made fun of people that buy a car that isn't appropriate and to me at least a Muscle car has an 8 cylinder engine.  The noise, feel, and rumble of the engine is just as important as the get up and go.

Plus these cars just don't have the tech I'd want.  Neither have auto high beams, rain sensing wipers, lane keep assist/warning, or cooled seats.  And for this big lack of tech, the price jumps up significantly.  The Mustang's monthly lease would be $542 while the Camaro's would be $648.  Too much to pay, for too little tech, and a car that ultimately wouldn't be satisfying as a muscle car.  So those are out.

Cadillac ATS and Audi A3
Both of these have the same problem.  Too much luxury.  Even wtihout going into their sport versions (The V for the Caddy and the S3 for the Audi) they still top out between $600 and $700.  It would be nice to drive a true luxury car... but the desire to do this came form saving money.  Not just getting a better car.

They're both out.

Mini Cooper
This is just one funky little car.  It's looks are universal (either hate it or love it), it's uniqueness includes a round dash, funny button placement, and being expensive for a compact hatch.  Sure, it's basically a BMW but a BMW isn't worth it without that badge.

I ended up dinging this because it's price IS fairly high once you customize it, and the value of them drops like a rock.  Their website doesn't put out specific prices for leases, but the writings on the wall.  It would be a high monthly payment.   It's out.

Chevy Cruze Hatchback
I love General Motors.  If I have any loyalty to a car brand, it's GM.  If all things are equal, I'd rather have a Chevy over a Ford and a Caddy over a Lincoln.  The Cruze was fine when I got my last two cars but kind of plain and old for a model.  It was obviously due for a new generation.  2015 saw the new generation and just a month or so ago saw the Hatchback.   There hasn't been a Chevy hatchback in this range for decades.  Seriously... I think the last one was the Metro (shivering in disgust).

But the new Cruze Hatchback is pretty damned slick.  In it's premium trim it has almost everything the Focus has except for rain sensing wipers.  Neither have the adaptive cruise and neither have cooled seats,but otherwise they have the same tech as my Fusion.  It's priced similar to the Focus AND it has an orange color that I fell in love with.  And before it had the "build it" option online I saw that it had a black and brown interior that I fell in love with.

But then the build it option came.  The brown interior is available... but not with the orange paint.  Bastards. Seriously... that's stopping me from having the Cruze at the top of my list.  I can get the brown interior with the Black paint (boring!) or the Red paint (I already have a red car and discussed it above).   The price with the orange exterior and all options is $378 a month.

VW Golf/GTI
I was just about ready to put the VW in the trash bin.   First, before I go to far I want it known that I will not even give a first thought to getting a diesel from VW.  I'm even hesitant to get any car from them, but it is a high quality German car.  Fit and finish and quality are part of the price here.

When I looked at them online though.... it was kind of lacking.  It's interior is boring.  It has a screen for the HVAC/Radio/Telecomunications/Navigation... but it's a 6 inch screen.  It doesn't have LED tail lights, and only a few of the trims have LED daylight running lamps.  Oh, and it isn't offered in a color more interesting than dark blue (it's a nice dark blue, but no Ford yellow or Chevy orange!).

Then came word this past week that they were introducing the new Golf/GTI.  The screen has been replaced with a 9 inch color one with faster responses and even with gesture controls.  The drivers information center (the speedo, tach, and screen there in front of the driver) is now all one big customizable screen.  You can move the speedo and tach around, you can put your nav screen including map there, and it's GORGEOUS!  It's now offered in a yellow color that's nice (not the Ford yellow sweetness, but still very nice!), it has LED tail lights with higher trims including pulsing turn signals (like the mustang they'd start toward the center of the car and grow longer toward the turning direction.  And the high trims also include 4 LED daylight running lamps up front.

It's so new that it's not on their website yet as a "build it now" option.  I'm not even sure when this will come out.  They introdced it as a 2017 model, but they are already selling the 2017 model... so maybe a mid year refresh?  Say April or May?  Or maybe it's just going to be a 2017 in Europe and will come out in fall as a 2018 model here.  Either way, it's worth getting more information on as this would be a sweet ride.

Now the difference between a standard VW Golf and a VW Golf GTI (most often the 'Golf' term is dropped making it a VW GTI), is the engine and some minor visuals.  The GTI is the original 'hot hatch' and is quite speedy.  It's not sport car fast but it has well over 200 horses under it's hood.   And as mentioned with the Fusion sport, horses drink more making the mpg suffer.  A GTI gets 24/34 while the regular golf gets 25/35.  Sounds close right?  From what I've learned online, the Golf easily gets those numbers while the GTI gets closer to 19/25.  I guess if you could keep your foot out of the gas it would get better... but I'd drive it like a hot hatch and get the lesser numbers.

Price?  Well again, it's not available yet so there's no absolute price.  But the VW site lists a Golf fully loaded is $312 a month.  That's at an initial value of $24,000.  The GTI is valued at $36,000, so figure around $430 a month.  Both good values for the car.

With the redesign and added tech, I'd assume that the price would be going up.  But a fully loaded Golf at $400 or less would be worth it in my book.  The GTI... I probably wouldn't go with it. It's nice to consider as I remember dreaming about a GTI, but that's before I knew that it was just a trim of the Golf.





There's my thought process so far.  Get a Fusion of some sort and be appointed with either the mpg or the color.  Get a Cruze and be pissed off at the interior.  Get a VW but possibly wait a year.  On top of all that... I still ow about $7000 more than my car is worth.  That's fair as I put more than normal mileage on it at this point (it will actually flip to lower than normal in 6 months or so) and I haven't even had it for 2 years.  But if I want this to happen in February/March I could put my annual work bonus and my tax returns toward the car and that will be about $5000.  Plus $2100 in payments made... yeah... this could happen at the two year mark of buying Ginger.



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