So it's no wonder that for the past two days I've been thinking a lot about Michigan's future coach. Not much else has been on my mind so I've thought around a lot of different angles on this.
First, just to encapsulate what's happened. The long view: Lloyd Carr retired in 2007. Michigan thought outside of the box and hired Rich Rodriguez from West Virgina. That sucked. He didn't get support from the university, the fans, the alumni, the players. He didn't know the traditions of the school. And worst of all... he didn't win. After four years he was fired, and Brady Hoke was hired. Not everything was perfect, but Brady was a 'Michigan Man'. He didn't just know the tradition, he lived and breathed it. But where he got every break that RichRod didn't (fan support, alumni support, player adoration...), he didn't do the key thing that a coach a Michigan should do... he didn't win. He was fired earlier this month after going 5-7 this year.
The other long view is in the Athletic Director's position. Bill Martin was the athletic director at Michigan for 10 years. He's the one that hired RichRod. He retired on his own timeline and was never pressured out. Dave Brandon replaced him. Brandon was a 'Michigan Man', but also a business man. He ran Domino's pizza before coming to Michigan. And he ran Michigan Athletics like a business. He brought lights to the newly renovated Michigan Stadium so that they could play night games... and then he named the night game. "Under the Lights". It even had it's own logo. The second game under the lights? "Under the Lights II". Yes... Under the Lights III was played this year. He brought in special uniforms. Umm... this is Michigan? The winged helmet? Blue top, yellow pants? Everyone knew that RichRod was fired... but Brandon waited until after the bowl game to fire him to save a million dollars on his buy out.
Before you get all $$ eyed.... yes saving a million dollars is a good thing, but Michigan's athletic budget for 2013-14 was 137.,5 million dollars. Evidently waiting that long to fire RichRod cost them getting a 'Michigan Man' hire. Someone who had college coaching experience at a big school. Someone who had taken a 'down' program and made them into a winner. That person was Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh, instead of coming to Michigan went to the San Francisco 49ers.
The short view is this year. Brady needed to win and just couldn't do it. He was seemingly in over his head. He couldn't develop players. Let's not act like Michigan doesn't have good players. Then the whole 'Shane Morris' incident. That actually lead to Dave Brandon quitting (being fired), and Michigan promoting Jim Hacket (a true blue 'Michigan Man') to Interm Athletic Director. At the end of the season Hacket fired Brady Hoke. He announced it at one of the most civil and friendly press conferences I've ever seen. He was clear and honest. He said things like 'Brady is a great man', 'Brady lives and breaths Michigan football', 'Brady cared for his players'. But he also said things like 'Brady didn't get the job done', 'Brady had time to get his players and his staff and still didn't win'.
So that's where we were at the beginning of December. I'll admit, I was a bit nervous. An interm Athletic Director was going to hire the next football coach? How could they possibly get a good coach when the coach wouldn't even know who his direct boss was going to be? And look at the other 'big' hires this season... Florida takes McElwain (who?), Nebraska takes Riley (umm....), Oregon State hires Anderson (wait... wasn't he at Wisconsin?), Wisconsin hires Chryst (who was a Wisconsin coordinator), and Pitt took Narduzi (probably the best hire this year). No big splashes this year. No Saban or Meyer.
Talk turned to possible candidates, and I briefly mentioned them on December 7th. Here was my case for Jim Harbaugh: He's played football. As a quarterback. At a major program. He was a first round draft pick. He played for 15 years in the NFL. He had success coaching at Stanford. STANFORD!? Stanford sucked at football for a long LONG time, and in four years there he took them from 1-11 to 12-1 and winning the Orange Bowl. He went to the NFL and in his first three years went to three NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl. The fact that he played at Michigan and that his father coached at Michigan were secondary. Michigan didn't need a 'Michigan Man', it needed a coach that could win.
Compared to Harbaugh, the other candidates seemed lacking. Sure, they would be good and could probably win at Michigan, but they had problems. Les Miles is a good coach at LSU, but he's like 61. And he's weird... he eats grass. Jon Harbaugh has never coached big time college football. Jim... now he would be a slam dunk. And the more I thought about it, the more I though about just how much of a Slam Dunk he'd be.
To my knowledge (and I've looked quite a bit), there has never been a successful NFL coach return to college. Sure, Nick Saban can talk to his players about his coaching experience in the pros.. but he lost there. Harbaugh has coached college players into being pro players. He's coached pro players into being better pro players. He knows what it takes to succeed at both levels.
Combine that type of coaching acumen, with a blue blood program like Michigan and you get the ultimate recruiting tool. And I can't emphasize this enough... he recruited players to STANFORD! It's pretty easy to look at Stanford as a good football program now, but it's Harbaugh that took it there. Stanford's last winning season was in 2001. Their last (and only) 10 win season was in 1992 under Bill Walsh. Their last bowl game was 2001, and their last bowl win was 1996. And if you haven't heard, they have very high Academic standards. You can't just get the best players, you have to get players that meet real standards. Michigan is considered hard to recruit for because they have high academic standards, but they don't compare to Stanford's.
So... yes I think Jim Harbaugh is a slam dunk hire for Michigan. I have no idea how interm athletic director Jim Hacket pulled it off, but once Harbaugh's press conference is over, they should remove the 'interm' from his title.
Looking into the future is also fun. What exactly can we expect from Jim Harbaugh? I personally dont' expect immediate success. But then again it depends on what you define as success. I'm sticking with Brady Hoke's definition of success... Big Ten Championships. The cupboards aren't exactly bare at Michigan right now. The offensive line is young but talented. The running backs have all proven that they can run. The defense was actually quite good at times. The biggest question mark for Michigan right now is the quarterback.... oh did I mention that Jim Harbaugh is a quarterback coach!? YAY!
So... it will take awhile for the athletes to get into his scheme. There are going to be transfers... some players just won't want to play for this guy. I expect Michigan to have a winning season next year and get to a decent bowl. But in a few years (3? 4?) I expect them to be in the chase for a Big Ten Title. And in the current college football world, it will be rare for a Big Ten Champion to NOT be in the college football playoff... so he'll also be in contention for a National Championship.
I think a fun comparison is looking at Alabama and it's road to hiring Nick Saban, and Michigan's road to Harbaugh:
- In 2006 Alabama fired Mike Shula who's biggest advantage was having ties to Alabama football... but he didn't win football games.
- In 2014 Michigan fired Brady Hoke who's biggest advantage was having ties to Michigan football... but he didn't win football games.
- Alabama had won one SEC championship in the past 14 years.
- Michigan last won a Big Ten championship 11 years ago.
- Alabama had lost five in a row to Auburn
- Michigan has lost 6 of 7 to Michigan State
- Alabama had lost 10 of 12 to Tennessee
- Michigan has lost 10 of 11 to Ohio State
- Alabama hired Nick Saban and made him the highest paid coach in college football ($4 Million)
- Michigan has hired Jim Harbaugh and made him the highest paid coach in college football ($8 Million)
- Nick Saban in 8 years went on to win three national championships and is competing for his fourth this year.
- Jim Harbaugh....
I'm still a realist. This is just football after all. But it does make me happy. I was a big Michigan fan when they were winning, I've stayed a big Michigan fan while they were losing... I'd love to be a Michigan fan when they are winning again!
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Update 12/31/14
One quick update... Coach Harbaugh won't be the highest paid coach in college football. It seems his basic pay package is $5 Million a year with lot's of bonuses, including a $2 Million signing bonus.
The future is looking very good for Michigan.
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